Six Trends of Power Battery in 2021

Key points of this paper:

Six trends of power battery in 2021:

1: The energy density of cells increased and the cost decreased, and the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery continued to rise

2: Head battery enterprises continue to expand production and accelerate the release of production capacity

3: Cutting edge technology products have been launched, and products with the concept of silicon doped lithium supplement and solid-state battery have increased

4: Second line battery enterprises usher in opportunities

5: The shortage of materials upstream of the power battery supply chain is prominent

6: The development of power exchange system promotes the emergence of battery asset management companies

- beginning of text -

As the core component of new energy vehicles, the cost, technology and production capacity of power batteries have a great impact on the industry.

The electric vehicle observer forecasts the power battery industry in the coming year in combination with the market, data and relevant information disclosed by the enterprise, and summarizes the past year, which is attached to the forecast.

Six predictions of a power battery

It is predicted that the energy density of cell 1 will increase, the cost will decrease, and the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery will continue to rise

With the continuous expansion of production scale, the cost of power battery is expected to continue to decline.

The energy density of lithium iron phosphate cell still has potential. Recently, GuoXuan high tech released 210wh / kg lithium iron phosphate battery, and its goal this year is 230wh / kg.

210wh / kg lithium iron phosphate battery released by GuoXuan high tech

The increase of energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery will lead to the improvement of acceptance of automobile enterprises. In the second half of 2020, Tesla Model 3 has begun to be equipped with lithium iron phosphate battery, resulting in obvious demonstration. In the later stage, Volkswagen, Weilai and other car enterprises are also likely to launch lithium iron phosphate models, and the market share is expected to be further improved. In terms of installed capacity, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate passenger vehicles in 2020 was 7.08 GWH, and in 2019, the figure was only 1.75 GWH, an increase of more than twice. In terms of models, 44 passenger cars will use lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2020, compared with 27 in 2019. However, the lithium iron phosphate battery has a serious problem of short endurance in winter, which may slow down the rapid growth of the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery to a certain extent, but the trend of increasing models should continue.

It is predicted that 2 head battery enterprises will continue to expand production and accelerate capacity release

In the short term, since the recovery of the new energy vehicle market in the second half of last year, the overall industry has an obvious positive trend, and the head battery enterprises are basically full production. At present, the volume of new energy vehicles of all auto enterprises is accelerating, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles show steady and rapid growth in 2021. In the medium and long term, major global auto companies have made 5-10-year plans for new energy vehicles, and the demand for power batteries will face a blowout. Ningde times, BYD, GuoXuan high tech, AVIC lithium, Funeng technology, honeycomb energy and other enterprises are expanding production on a large scale to cope with demand pressure.

Production expansion of some battery enterprises in 2020

Source: Internet

It is predicted that 3 silicon doped lithium supplement and solid-state battery concept products will increase

At present, silicon-based negative electrode is mainly used for cylindrical digital, a small amount for soft package digital and cylindrical power battery. In terms of vehicle use, the lithium battery supplied by Panasonic to Tesla adopts silicon-based negative electrode. With the increase of energy density of lithium-ion battery, the gram capacity of negative material also needs to increase accordingly. GuoXuan high tech 210wh / kg lithium iron phosphate battery is a new type of lithium iron phosphate positive material and silicon negative material, which are pre lithium. The nano silicon negative electrode led by Tianmu has also been reported by CCTV news, and the application process of silicon negative electrode materials is accelerating. On January 13, Zhiji electric vehicle also adopted the technology of adding silicon and lithium, and the monomer energy density can reach 300wh / kg. In addition, there will be more and more models equipped with solid-state batteries. Nezha and Weilai have planned solid-state battery models. Although the current planned models are probably semi-solid batteries, in theory, the safety will be significantly improved.

Forecast 4 opportunities for second-line battery enterprises

Cooperation between Volkswagen and GuoXuan, cooperation between Funeng and Daimler, cooperation between honeycomb and PSA, cooperation between Wanxiang 123 and Volkswagen, and Yiwei lithium energy won the designated position of brilliance BMW, etc. the cooperation between domestic battery enterprises and international automobile enterprises began to enter the landing stage. According to the agreement, Funeng began to supply Daimler in 2021, with a total supply scale of 140gwh in seven years. In addition, domestic battery enterprises have also begun to expand to overseas markets. Many enterprises have built overseas production bases, but overseas expansion may slow down due to the epidemic.

Forecast 5: the shortage of upstream materials is prominent

Since January 2021, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China has been rising continuously. At present, the quotation is generally concentrated at 62000-67000 yuan / ton. According to the latest news from Italian news agency, a domestic trader quoted a high price of 80000 yuan / ton for battery grade lithium carbonate on January 19, up 17000 yuan / ton from 63000 yuan / ton on January 14, an increase of 21.2%, and a year-on-year increase of more than 40% in January.

The actual capacity and new capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate are not much, and the relationship between supply and demand in the global market is tense. After new year's day, lithium hexafluorophosphate has exceeded the 100000 mark.

Copper foil leading enterprises 6um have production capacity in short supply, and prices are expected to remain high this year.

Predict 6 the development of power exchange system and promote the emergence of battery asset management companies

Last August, Weilai automobile officially launched battery as a service, which can provide vehicle power separation, battery rental, rechargeable, replaceable and upgradeable services. Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Guotai Junan International Holding Co., Ltd. and Hubei science and Technology Investment Group Co., Ltd. jointly invested and established Wuhan Weineng battery assets Co., Ltd., which was officially established. Nezha automobile is planning to cooperate with several battery factories including Ningde times and Huading Guolian to launch the vehicle electricity separation mode. The project is tentatively designated as "battery bank". In the vehicle electricity separation mode, when Nezha owners buy electric vehicles, they don't need to buy batteries. They only need to pay the cost of the single vehicle excluding batteries. They use the vehicle by renting "battery bank" batteries. Aodong new energy, the power exchange operator, is also exploring the application value of baas (battery as a service) mode and battery echelon utilization. With the growth of changing tram type, battery bank will become a new outlet in the future.

II. Six characteristics of power battery in 2020

Features the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery has increased rapidly since the first half of the year

In the first half of last year, the market share of lithium iron phosphate was still lower than that in the same period last year, but the market share increased significantly from the second half of last year. Most of the early market of lithium iron phosphate battery is mainly in the field of commercial vehicles. However, since September last year, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate passenger vehicles has increased significantly, and Tesla's supporting lithium iron phosphate battery in Ningde era has led to a significant increase in the overall market share. From January to December 2020, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery was 22.39gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.7%. In addition, the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery in the whole year also increased slightly, from 32% in 2019 to 35%.

Feature 2: the proportion of cylindrical battery has been significantly increased

This is mainly due to Tesla's LG Chemical cylindrical battery. However, the share of soft pack batteries is expected to increase in the future. Last year, Volkswagen invested 1.1 billion euros to obtain 26.47% shares of GuoXuan high tech, becoming its largest shareholder; Daimler then subscribed 900 million yuan of strategic investment Funeng technology to participate in its science and Innovation Board IPO; Wanxiang 123 was also reported to have won Volkswagen's 10 billion yuan power battery order; Yiwei lithium energy has also received a fixed-point letter from brilliance BMW power battery suppliers. These enterprises have a high probability of using soft pack batteries.

Characteristics three new forces battery enterprises emerge

In 2020, the market ranking of emerging battery enterprises represented by Ruipu and honeycomb rose rapidly. Especially in the second half of the year, the installed capacity of Ruipu often climbed to the top five, and the total amount of the whole year ranked eighth, which is directly related to its supporting best-selling model Baojun series. The hive once entered the top 10 by relying on the Great Wall.

New enterprises represented by honeycomb have no production capacity and ideological burden, and have a fast acceptance and R & D speed of new technologies, promoting the implementation of new technologies such as cobalt free and quaternary batteries. Solid state battery enterprises, such as Qingtao, Huineng and Weilan, also made rapid progress in financing and cooperation in 2020. Capital has paid more attention to solid-state batteries and strengthened investment. For example, Qingtao carried out e-round financing in 2020, and the investors include SAIC, GAC and other auto enterprises; Huineng also carried out round D financing, raising nearly US $100 million, with investors including FAW and Softbank.

Feature 4: the market share of LG Chemical has increased significantly

In 2020, LG Chemical's installed capacity was 7.65gwh, only 6.3mwh in the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 121347%.

In 2020, the installed capacity of foreign battery enterprises was 7.96gwh, and in 2019, the data was 234.5mwh, a year-on-year increase of 32 times. The increase of LG Chemical market share mainly depends on the supporting of Tesla Model 3. Other foreign-funded enterprises, such as ski, rely on polar fox α Matching of T; Panasonic mainly relies on supporting Tesla and Japanese cars. In 2020, ski will be complete, but Samsung will not be installed.

Five features Ningde era foreign investment involves many fields

According to rough statistics, there will be 16 investment projects in Ningde times in 2020, including power batteries, intelligent manufacturing, automatic driving, travel, semiconductors and many other fields. Typically, it has established a battery asset company in a joint venture with Weilai, invested in the integrated operation of storage and charging with Baicheng new energy, invested in the field of intelligent manufacturing equipment with Anmai Shengzhi, and invested in the field of unmanned mineral card with Henan Yuexin intelligent.

In addition, at the end of last year, it was also reported that Alibaba and Alibaba jointly invested in the road sharing travel of SAIC and set foot in the travel field.

Some foreign investment in Ningde era in 2020

Source: Internet

Feature 6: further enhance the concentration of battery enterprises

In 2020, there will be 73 supporting power cell production enterprises; There were 79 in 2019 and 110 in 2018, and the number of supporting enterprises decreased significantly. At the same time, the concentration of installed capacity is also improving. The installed capacity of top20 will account for 98.2% in 2020 and 96.2% in 2019.

Installed capacity of power battery in 2020 (MWh)

Source: vehicle factory certificate

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